About demographic processes in Uzbekistan

 The role of demographic processes in the socio-economic development of any state is great, and the scientific study of important aspects of population growth, location, demographic composition and much more is of great importance. The population plays a crucial role in the development of society both as a productive force and as a consumer. The demographic situation is at the center of economic reforms aimed at the formation of a stable and efficient economy in the republic.
A specific demographic situation has developed in Uzbekistan: it manifests itself in an increase in the growth rate of the population, its birth rate, a decrease in mortality rates and at the same time in the growth of the working-age population.
In a Message to the Oliy Majlis and the people of Uzbekistan on December 20, 2022, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted that last year the country's population exceeded 36 million, annually replenished with a new almost 900 thousandth generation. We are trying to create all conditions for every person in our large and friendly family - Uzbekistan - to live in peace and prosperity. People expect us to build schools, kindergartens and hospitals, improve the quality of education and medicine, solve local problems related to drinking water and electricity, roads and transport, increase the number of jobs, create new opportunities for entrepreneurship, ensure justice, eliminate bureaucracy and corruption. Therefore, the principle of "First of all - the person, and then - society and the state" becomes fundamental in the transformations of the New Uzbekistan.
Our republic has the highest demographic potential among the CIS countries. In 2021, Uzbekistan accounted for 11.9 percent of the region's population and 46.7 percent of Central Asia.
In terms of population, Uzbekistan ranks 41st out of 242 countries and 3rd in the CIS countries.
We are among the countries whose population is growing at a high rate. Thus, in Uzbekistan in 1991 there were 21 million 106.3 thousand people, and in 2022 - 36 million 024.9 thousand (an increase of 70.7 percent).
About half (49.7 percent) of the republic's population lives in Samarkand (11.4), Ferghana (11), Kashkadarya (9.7), Andijan (9.2) and Tashkent (8.3) regions.
The number of permanent residents averaged 498.6 thousand people per year in 1991. In the 2000s - 325.4 thousand. In 2020, it increased to 653.7 thousand, in 2022 - to 753.6 thousand.
Currently, the population density is also increasing: if in 1991 there were 46.1 inhabitants per km2 of land, by 2022 this figure was 80.2. Population density is relatively high in Andijan (772.7 people), Ferghana (584.8) and Namangan (405.1) regions.
50.9 percent of the population (18 million 335.7 thousand) live in urban areas. As a result of comprehensive reforms on large-scale urban development, the number of urban residents increased from 8 million 450 thousand people to 18 million 335.7 thousand (or 2.2 times) from 1991 to 2022.
Over the years of independence, the rural population has grown from 12 million 656.3 thousand to 17 million 689.2 thousand, while the share in the total population has decreased from 60 to 49.1 percent.
In the structure of the population of the republic, the ratio between the sexes is almost the same: men - 50.3%, women - 49.7 (2022).
According to the data of last year, the population of Uzbekistan younger than the working age is 31.7 percent (from 0 to 15 years), able-bodied - 56.8 (women 16-54 years, men 16-59), older than the working age - 11.5 (women 55 years and older, men 60 years and older).
Over the years of independence, the number of residents younger than working age has increased from 9 million 117.7 thousand to 10 million 997.9 thousand people (by 20.6 percent). The population younger than the working age, which makes up a third of the population of the republic, makes it possible to receive a "demographic dividend" due to the transition to the working age population in 2030-2050.
In 1991, the working-age population was 10 million 352.9 thousand, by 2022 - 20 million 464.5 thousand (an increase of 97.7 percent).
 
According to demographic indicators, Uzbekistan is among the countries belonging to the stage of the "first demographic dividend". According to the UN study "World Population Prospects", by 2048, the largest part of the inhabitants of Uzbekistan (27.6 million people) will be able-bodied citizens (from 15 to 64 years old). The predominance of the share of the working-age population in the structure of the total population, the addition on average of about 600 thousand young people to the working age annually causes the need to ensure their employment, create new jobs.
The population that appeared during the high birth rate period (1950-1965) is growing rapidly due to the transition to the ranks of the elderly today.  In particular, the number of citizens in this group increased from 1 million 635.7 thousand in 1991 to 4 million 128.1 thousand in 2022 (2.5 times). The share of the total population increased from 7.7 to 11.2 percent, respectively.
The UN demographers have developed a three-stage criterion for assessing the aging process. So, if the proportion of the population aged 65 years and older is less than four percent, this is the demographic age; from four to seven percent - at the dawn of old age; exceeding seven percent of the total population of the territory is considered demographically elderly.
In 2021, the proportion of people aged 65 and older in the age structure of Uzbekistan was 5.1 percent. So, according to international criteria, Uzbekistan is among the countries "on the verge of demographic aging."
A high proportion of the working-age population is a demographic opportunity for economic development. According to the forecast made by domestic and foreign experts with the financial support of the United Nations Population Fund, a "demographic window of opportunity" will open in our republic until 2050.
In 2022, 932.2 thousand births were registered in Uzbekistan, which is the highest figure for the years of independence. According to statistics, the number of births in the country in 1991 was 723.4 thousand, in 2000 - 527.5 thousand, in 2010 - 634.8 thousand.
The total fertility rate (the number of births per 1000 inhabitants) was 21.3 ppm in 2000, 22 in 2010 and 26.2 in 2022. The Republic belongs to the category of countries with a "moderately high" birth rate.
The total fertility rate (the number of children per woman) in 2021 was 3.17 (the UN notes as the norm from 2.15). The birth rate is higher than the national average in Surkhandarya (3.47), Jizzakh (3.38), Kashkadarya (3.38) and Namangan (3.37) oblasts.
Life expectancy at birth increases from 66.4 years in 1991 to 73.8 in 2021. This is due to the improvement of the provision of medical care to the population, the introduction of modern technologies into the healthcare system, the equipping of medical institutions with advanced equipment, the training and retraining of highly qualified personnel in this area, as well as due to the great attention to providing the industry with highly qualified personnel.
In recent years, Uzbekistan has seen a relative decrease in mortality among the population. In particular, the number of deaths per 1,000 people decreased from year to year, amounting to 6.2 in 1991, 5.5 in 2000 and 4.8 in 2022.
If the value of the total mortality rate is less than 10 percent, then the mortality rate is low, if from 10 to 14.9 - average, 15-24.9 - high, 25-34.9 - very high, 35 and above - an extraordinary maximum. Thus, according to international criteria, Uzbekistan is among the countries with the lowest mortality rate in the world.
During the years of independence, the total number of arrivals throughout the republic decreased from 371,092 people to 214,821 (42.1 percent). The main part of immigrants (in 1991 - 63.6 percent, in 2000 - 96.3, in 2010 - 96.7, in 2022 - 98.9) are immigrants from other regions of the republic. The share of the total number of immigrants to Uzbekistan from abroad decreased from 36.4 percent in 1991 to 1.1 percent last year.
The bulk of those who immigrated to Uzbekistan from foreign countries (2022) accounted for Russia (35 percent compared to those who immigrated from abroad in general), Kazakhstan (32.8), Tajikistan (6.7), Kyrgyzstan (4.8), Turkmenistan (1.6) and other countries (19,1).
The share of immigrants to foreign countries decreased from year to year: in 1991 - 44 percent, in 2000 - 29.4, in 2010 - 24.1, in 2022 - 4.
The bulk of those who moved from Uzbekistan to foreign countries account for Kazakhstan (79.5 percent overall compared to those who immigrated from abroad), Russia (16.4), Kyrgyzstan (0.7), Tajikistan (0.5), Turkmenistan (0.3) and other countries (2.6).
For During the years of independence, a negative migration balance was recorded, which in 1991 amounted to 30,227 people, and in 2005 - 101,608. In subsequent years, there were positive shifts in the negative balance of migration, equal to minus 6467 people in 2022.

Sherzod Dusnaev.
Deputy Head of the Department of the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan.