Prospects for international cooperation in ensuring climate sustainability in Central Asia

Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change. A region characterized by drought, sharp fluctuations in temperature conditions and low precipitation, as well as heterogeneity in the distribution of resources, is particularly affected by climate change. 

According to the UN Development Program, the average annual temperature in Central Asia has increased by 0.5°C over the past 30 years, and by 2085 it is projected to increase by 2.0-5.7°C. An increase in the frequency and speed of extreme weather events and natural disasters threatens physical security, critical infrastructure and access to health and education. Instability in the economy and social sphere, a low level of research potential, as well as a high degree of degradation of agricultural and natural landscapes also negatively affect the ability of Central Asian States to cope with climate change. 
1. Climate and related water, energy and other problems have a serious negative impact on all countries of the region. 
First, climate change has jeopardized the water and energy security of the Central Asian countries. Glaciers are shrinking (decreasing in size by 30% over the past 50-60 years), while the demand for water and energy in the region is growing. According to forecasts, by 2050 the population of Central Asia will increase from 77 million to 110 million people. According to FAO and World Bank experts, water resources per capita in Central Asian countries are sufficient (about 2.3 thousand m3), and the problem in the region is not in their shortage, but in extremely irrational use. The availability of domestic renewable water resources in the downstream countries is weak. 
This situation will be aggravated not only by climate change, but also by the growth of production, agriculture and population, which will lead to an increase in demand for water.  
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts a decrease in water volumes in the Syrdarya and Amudarya basins by 10-15% by 2050. Rivers are the most important sources of water in Central Asia, which affects water scarcity in the countries of the region. The current water shortage in Uzbekistan may increase to 7 billion. cubic meters by 2030 and up to 15 billion . cubic meters by 2050, taking into account the decrease in water volumes in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins. 
As you know, the biggest environmental problem in the region remains the drying up of the Aral Sea. Water-saving technologies are very poorly implemented in the countries of the region, coordination of management systems is limited, and a systematic approach to common water networks, including smaller rivers and lakes, has not been implemented. Against this background, more active work of international structures is needed, such as the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea and the Interstate Coordinating Water Management Commission of Central Asia on the Aral Sea.
Secondly, every year the countries of the region face drought, which reduces yields, and in some cases leads to its complete destruction, thereby causing enormous material damage to agriculture and becoming the cause of a threat to food security of the entire region. Agriculture accounts for 10-45% of the Central Asian countries' GDP. Agriculture employs 20-50% of the able-bodied population, while, according to FAO, more than half of the rain-fed arable lands in the region are regularly exposed to drought, and almost all irrigated areas experience high or very high levels of water stress.
Drought can also be caused by destructive sand and dust storms that can move billions of tons of sand across continents. Deserts are expanding, reducing the area of land for growing food crops. 
Heat stress caused by high temperatures exacerbates water scarcity and reduces the number of pastures, which leads to a decrease in crop yields and adversely affects animal husbandry.
Third, the impact on energy production caused by rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation, as well as threats to the infrastructure for the production and transmission of electricity caused by extreme weather events, undermine the supply chain and energy security. 
In Central Asian countries, such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where hydropower occupies a special place in the economy, siltation of reservoirs can reduce electricity generation and create additional difficulties for the management of hydroelectric power plants. 
In general, according to the World Bank, negative climate impacts can lead to a 20% reduction in hydroelectric power generation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the coming years. An increase in water temperature or an insufficient amount of it can negatively affect the energy production of thermal power plants in the rest of the region.
Fourth, the socio-economic consequences of climate change in Central Asia are explained by financial losses caused by the increase in the number and frequency of natural disasters in Central Asia, such as floods, landslides, avalanches, mudslides, sandstorms, fires, causing enormous material damage. According to the World Bank, in five Central Asian states since 1991, floods alone have affected more than 1.1 million people and caused damage worth more than $1 billion. In general, natural disasters in the region cause losses of about $10 billion and affect the lives of almost 3 million people. a person annually.
Climate change, accompanied by extreme weather events, further strengthens the factors influencing the increase in poverty. Natural disasters can lead to the forced displacement of people with low incomes. Floods, landslides and landslides destroy settlements, and people lose their livelihoods. Extreme heat and lack of water have a negative impact on crop yields and, accordingly, on farmers' incomes. In addition, according to the World Bank report, up to 2.4 million internal climate migrants may appear in Central Asia by 2050. 
2. The efforts of the Central Asian states to solve global environmental problems are closely linked to the activities of the UN in this area. All Central Asian countries have signed and ratified the Paris Agreement, the largest multilateral treaty currently in force related to climate change, which aims to involve all States in the overall process of implementing ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its consequences. 
The States of the region take part in all international conferences on environmental protection without exception and have joined almost all UN environmental conventions. These include: the Framework Convention on Climate Change; the Convention on Biodiversity; the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on the Conservation of the Ozone Layer; the Convention to Combat Desertification; the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal; The Aarhus Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters. 
In recent years, the Central Asian countries have launched a number of initiatives aimed at drawing the attention of the international community to the environmental problems of the region. 
These include the "International Decade of Action: Water for Sustainable Development, 2018-2028", initiated by Tajikistan, and a new draft resolution entitled "Nature knows no borders: cross-border cooperation is a key factor in the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity", proposed by Kyrgyzstan. 
The need to take effective measures on adaptation to the effects of climate change has led to a particularly high priority for Uzbekistan of all key issues on the climate agenda. Thus, thanks to the efforts of Tashkent, in 2018, a Multi-Partner Fund for Human Security for the Aral Sea region was established under the auspices of the UN, which has become a reliable platform for practical assistance from the world community to the population of the region living in a territory with a difficult environmental situation. To date, the Fund has attracted $134.5 million of financial resources from donor countries.
An important achievement was that in 2021, during the 75th session of the UN General Assembly, a special resolution proposed by the President of Uzbekistan on declaring the Aral Sea region a zone of environmental innovation and technology, co-sponsored by about 60 states, was unanimously adopted. In the course of the held in October of this year On the 3rd International Forum "One Belt, One Road" (OPOP), the Uzbek side proposed to create, with the participation of leading companies from China and other foreign partners in the Aral Sea region, a special demonstration technology park for the implementation of industrial and socially significant programs based on the widespread introduction of "green" technologies. The leadership of our country also proposed to launch a scientific and information platform for the transfer of "green" knowledge and solutions on the basis of the International Innovation Center of the Aral Sea region.
Uzbekistan takes an active part in the annual meetings of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change on a permanent basis. During the 27th meeting held in 2022, the Uzbek delegation called for the consolidation of efforts in achieving carbon neutrality, promoting renewable energy sources, projects on adaptation to climate change, combating desertification and land degradation, the introduction of water-saving technologies and other climate actions in Central Asia.

Another significant aspect was that the UN supported Uzbekistan's intention to hold the first International Climate Forum in Samarkand in the spring of 2024, dedicated to climate change, which provides for discussion of opportunities for international cooperation to reduce risks and threats in the Central Asian region and issues of attracting climate finance. During the 78th session of the UN General Assembly in September this year. In New York, the President of Uzbekistan took the initiative to adopt the UN General Assembly resolution "Central Asia in the face of global climate threats: solidarity for common prosperity" and proposed to discuss its main provisions at the Samarkand Forum. 
The leadership of Uzbekistan also pays increased attention to the integration of conceptual initiatives – the "Green Agenda of Central Asia" and the "Green Silk Road". In this regard, speaking at the 3rd OPOP Forum, the President of the country Sh.Mirziyoyev proposed "to develop a full-scale program of "green" development for the practical implementation of key tasks: "green" transformation and digitalization of economic sectors; creation of sustainable infrastructure in the transport and energy sectors; launch of "green" industrial capacities; poverty reduction and development of "smart" agriculture."
In this context, the Uzbek side also proposed to establish a Green Financing Fund in our country, which will become an effective tool for mobilizing financial resources for the development of a low-carbon economy and "clean" technologies, as well as the introduction of high environmental standards in Central Asian countries.
The above-mentioned initiatives of Uzbekistan contribute to increasing the participation of our country in ensuring climate sustainability in Central Asia, legitimize, support and strengthen the "green discourse" in the region and beyond, firmly positioning Central Asia as a significant participant in the process of institutionalizing international cooperation in solving urgent problems of climate change and environmental protection. They also clearly fit into the implementation of the main goals and objectives adopted in 2019. Strategies for the transition of the Republic of Uzbekistan to a "green economy" for the period 2019-2030.
In general, in recent years, there has been an intensification of the contribution of Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries to solving the most difficult issues related to minimizing the consequences and adapting to climate change in the world and its individual regions. Moreover, as the World Bank experts note in the "Country Report on Climate and Development" published in November this year, measures to adapt to climate change and decarbonize the energy-intensive economy of Uzbekistan can contribute to achieving the country's development goals and improving the well-being of its citizens. 
Khoshimova Shahodat, 
Chief Researcher of the Information and Analytical Center for International Relations under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Oleg Limanov,
Chief Researcher at the Information and Analytical Center for International Relations under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan