When it comes to foreign policy rivalry, the "space race" is often cited as an example — the exhausting technological sprint of the world's largest powers. Undoubtedly, the steps towards the conquest of near-Earth space were successful: the launch of the first artificial satellite, the first human flight into space, the first man on the moon and many other achievements. However, this story could be different, the victories would be even more significant, the funds spent would be less, if it were not about rivalry, but about cooperation.
Researchers recall that the project of a joint American-Soviet flight to the Moon could have started back in 1961. It wasn't meant to be. Although after almost thirty years, the idea of cooperation that was in the air still turned into reality in an airless space. Its era was marked by the launch of the International Space Station, which will become a place for serious research, significant discoveries.
I think this approach expresses a global trend. As we develop, the tasks to be solved become more complex and larger. And increasingly, people and countries in such cases are moving away from rivalry and competition, preferring cooperation and interaction. It is in this way that it is more profitable to reduce costs, as they say, without reinventing the wheel, to avoid duplication of efforts, which is beneficial to each side.
It is clear that not everyone can go beyond competitive thinking. It has dominated the space of our region for decades. "Who is richer? Stronger? Is it more important?", — subjective assessments in response to such questions took a lot of effort and money worthy of better use. At the same time, really important problems remained out of sight, contradictions smoldered, threatening to develop into open conflicts.
To fix the situation, a real breakthrough was needed. It happened six years ago. Shavkat Mirziyoyev declared the Central Asian region a priority in the foreign policy of the new Uzbekistan. As a practical embodiment of this idea, consultative meetings of the heads of State of the region have been established and are regularly held, at which, taking into account the interests of all parties, concrete measures aimed at the fullest realization of the significant potential of Central Asia are developed. Thanks to the political will, within a short period of time by historical standards, the neighboring countries began to listen to each other, jointly solve many long-standing problems. Economic cooperation has reached a new level, mutual trips of people have been simplified, which was difficult to imagine until recently. A completely different political atmosphere has formed in the region, which is recognized all over the world, emphasizing the role and contribution of the leader of Uzbekistan to this important cause for the security and prosperity of a vast space.
"I would like to emphasize your commitment to the development of relations with neighboring countries through the process of expanding regional cooperation of the five Central Asian countries," the President of the United States of America Joe Biden said in his letter to Shavkat Mirziyoyev the other day. "These efforts make a great contribution to ensuring prosperity and stability in the region and beyond."
The expected growth is the highest
According to a number of experts, the aggregate GDP of the countries of the region has grown by 25 percent over the past four years and exceeded the $300 billion mark. The trade turnover of Uzbekistan with its neighbors in Central Asia increased 2.6 times and exceeded 6.5 billion dollars. Recently, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development published a report on regional economic prospects. According to the study, financial institution analysts expect the highest growth rates in Central Asia.
In general, in the countries where the bank operates, the forecast growth for this year is only 2.1 percent. Economists lowered expectations for more than half of the states, especially in the European Union. Against this background, as noted in the report, Central Asia will potentially become the most actively developing region of the EBRD. Overall economic growth is projected to grow by 4.9 percent this year, and by 5.4 percent in 2024.
As for the forecast by country, Uzbekistan will add 6.5 percent to its economy this year. Similar indicators are expected in Turkmenistan, relations with which are an excellent example of the dynamism of the last few years.
Everyone remembers that Shavkat Mirziyoyev paid his first foreign visit as President to Turkmenistan, it became an unambiguous message to the world community: the new Uzbekistan is primarily increasing cooperation with its neighbors. It will consistently grow stronger from year to year, bringing significant benefits to all parties.
The state visit of the head of our state to Ashgabat in October last year and the results of fruitful negotiations contributed to the comprehensive strengthening of friendship, good-neighborliness and strategic partnership between the countries. The course of the trip was followed with great interest by socio-political circles, experts, who called the meeting another vivid evidence of the strengthening of Tashkent's position in the Central Asian region, a manifestation of the effectiveness of the country's foreign policy as a whole.
According to Ilgar Velizade, the head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists Club from Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan has noticeably updated and modernized the base of bilateral relations with all the states of the region. And the visit to Turkmenistan gives a significant impetus to bilateral relations, will be an important contribution to the development of dialogue in Central Asia. It is enough to note that the trade turnover between the two countries is steadily growing and by the end of last year it approached a billion dollars. In the coming years, the parties expect its doubling and qualitative improvement of the structure of commodity exchange.
As the media reported, to applause, Presidents Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Serdar Berdimuhamedov signed a Declaration on deepening the strategic partnership between the two countries. And although its basis is the further expansion of trade and economic ties, the two neighboring states do not forget about the cultural and humanitarian component of relations. The Ashgabat Park was opened in our capital in 2018, and the Tashkent Park appeared in the Turkmen capital. These counter steps serve as evidence of the ever-growing friendly relations.
In early February, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan celebrated the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, as befits neighbors, exchanged gifts. Taking into account the close fraternal ties and as a sign of mutual respect, a batch of liquefied gas was received from Turkmenistan, in turn, modern ambulances were sent from Uzbekistan. All this harmoniously fits into the traditions that are adhered to in both countries, confirms the dynamics of the development of strategic partnership. In addition, the global political establishment has received a clear signal — a trusting atmosphere has reigned in Central Asia, which allows its republics to help each other, help if necessary without external directives and recommendations.
Turn back the clock hands
In 1947, Chicago scientists from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists magazine launched the Doomsday Clock in an attempt to draw humanity's attention to the threats of nuclear weapons after the United States had bombed the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki two years earlier. They are designed to metaphorically express how close Earthlings have come to self-destruction, that is, symbolic midnight. Then the hands of the clock froze from the fatal number just seven minutes away.
Recently, the world media published the news that for the first time by a collegial decision, the hands of the clock have reached a critical point: now they show one and a half minutes to midnight.
The leader of Uzbekistan in his speeches emphasizes that humanity has entered a "period of "historical rift", when one era ends and another begins — even more unpredictable and unknown. Indeed, due to global conflicts, instability, the threat of nuclear war, and now also climate change, our planet has been on the verge of destruction. In this situation, when reasonable arguments and sound appeals seem to be heard from everywhere, there is an acute lack of concrete actions aimed at preserving peace where possible, saving regions from the appearance of new hot spots on their maps, and resolving smoldering threats. In other words, take real steps to move the hands of the Doomsday Clock back.
Against the background of the processes taking place in the world, issues related to ensuring peace, stability and economic growth remain in demand for the Central Asian countries as never before. Any expert in conflictology will classify territorial and border disputes as the main causes of military clashes between neighboring countries. Such "time bombs" are also laid under the foundation of our region. Periodically they are triggered, which leads to bloody skirmishes.
That is why experts called the agreement between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on the delimitation of borders an unprecedented act of political wisdom and will. The end of this process was put during the recent visit of the head of our country to Bishkek. At the initiative of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the hotbeds smoldering around the perimeter of the country are being nullified, as are the threats of a potential conflict in the region.
— I assess the signing of the agreement on the delimitation and demarcation of the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border extremely positively, — said political scientist and expert on Central Asia Arkady Dubnov. — This event is an event of historical importance. Especially where for many years there have been irremediable contradictions, ambitions, misunderstandings.
Commenting on the January meeting between Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Sadyr Zhaparov, a political scientist from Kyrgyzstan Denis Berdakov called the visit of the President of Uzbekistan the only state visit in a long time, which resulted in concrete agreements. In his opinion, for the first time Kyrgyzstan was offered such an exchange of goods that would suit both sides. Uzbekistan will help the neighboring country to create its own industry, launching the path of industrialization. In addition, significant shifts have been achieved in the hydroeconomics, the agricultural sector, which will allow to establish a balance of the economic system in the Fergana Valley.
— As for the political issue, we can say that the Soviet Union in Central Asia is almost over, - said the political scientist. — While there are no settled and clear borders of the state, the USSR has not collapsed. This is a problem of all the republics of the region. After looking at what is happening in the world and the region, they understood and decided to settle issues that could lead to conflict. A country with undefined borders is weak. On the day of the visit, which has historical significance, the disputes ended.
Tandem instead of fighting
"Kazakhstan vs Uzbekistan: is the struggle for leadership escalating?", "Will Uzbekistan be able to "outrun" Kazakhstan?", "Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan: rivalry or cooperation?" — such headlines have surfaced in the Internet media quite recently. Experts and ordinary people were seriously engaged in discussing which of the two countries' economies is stronger and has great prospects for growth, who is better suited to the role of a military-political hegemon, and who, accordingly, should be lagging behind.
It is clear that such a picture of the world, where everyone has settled for the first or second, they wear labels, while in their hearts they want to overcome the "opponent" by any means and take away his dubious "leadership" status, some have to like it. However, in the case of our states, it is completely different.
It is obvious that the two largest countries in the region by population and area — Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan — are now acting as locomotives, striving to make the greatest contribution to the development of Central Asia. Largely due to this, the five republics are increasingly viewed on global platforms as an integral consolidated region, rather than individual states that are united only by a common history, traditions and culture. According to experts, the consequence of such changes has also been the consistent development by countries of agreed positions on intraregional issues and close coordination on international platforms. The unified position of the Central Asian states began to sound within the framework of the UN, CIS, SCO, OSCE, OIC, ECO and other structures.
A significant contribution to strengthening this important and necessary interconnectedness was the signing by the Presidents of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan of an agreement on the establishment of allied relations and an agreement on the demarcation of the Uzbek-Kazakh State border during the meeting of Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Tashkent at the end of last year.
"Thanks to the active political dialogue and coordinated work of the governments, Kazakh—Uzbek relations are developing steadily in an ascending line and demonstrate unprecedented dynamics in all directions," the leader of the neighboring state noted at the time. — Dear Shavkat Miromonovich Mirziyoyev and I have signed historical agreements, which, in my deep conviction, will be written in golden letters in the annals of cooperation and fraternal relations between our states. The Treaty on Allied Relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan embodies the mutual desire of our peoples for further rapprochement and meets their fundamental interests.
Andrey Grozin, Head of the Central Asia and Kazakhstan sector of the CIS Institute, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, called the signing of the alliance agreement a reflection of the Uzbek policy of friendship with its closest neighbors and the reduction of contradictions in all azimuths in the region, understanding that the combined political potential of the two key states of the region is better than these potentials separately.
As if to confirm the expert's words, as well as as a new fact of political reality, among the first analytical materials on the results of the bilateral summit, Internet search engines issued an article under the heading "Tokayev's historic visit to Tashkent: a tandem of the region's leading countries." Quite another matter.
Restore trust
The times when it was out of the question for a journalist to go on a creative business trip 150 kilometers to ancient Istarafshan or Khojent are still fresh in my memory. An insurmountable wall seems to have grown up between peoples with common roots, history and traditions.
The first visit of Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Dushanbe in early 2018 was called by fellow journalists as "a dream come true of two peoples". Actually, this was the case: after it, mutual trips of citizens of our states resumed, friendly neighborly relations were reanimated in general. As the media wrote at the time, the results of the meeting of the presidents gave hope that the deep gap in trust that separated Tashkent and Dushanbe for almost a quarter of a century could be overcome, and this would enable the people of two very close countries to regain a sense of normal human community. Experts noted that the established dialogue marked the beginning of the restoration of trust between the countries and gave the whole of Central Asia a chance to look like a single entity throughout Eurasia.
Over the years since then, cooperation with the neighboring republic has grown progressively, which has affected both the figures — the volume of bilateral trade has increased almost 40 times, and the lives of ordinary people for whom mutual trips have become commonplace. Last year, for example, Tajikistan was visited by almost 800 thousand Uzbeks, which is four times more than in 2021. Negotiations between Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Emomali Rahmon, held last year, brought relations between the neighbors to the highest level, resulting in the signing of a Declaration on strengthening eternal Friendship and alliance. I think this fact is worthy of illustrating the thesis that if there is political will, there can be no unsolvable problems and contradictions between the countries of the region.
Foreign analysts note the key role of Shavkat Mirziyoyev in the process of Central Asian integration. The meetings and formats initiated by the President of Uzbekistan have created an opportunity for the leaders of the five countries to openly discuss any issues, listen to their colleagues with considerations on partnership priorities. The geographical location and the geopolitical situation suggest that our states, first of all, need to rely on themselves, developing and diversifying the economy, infrastructure, fully unlocking the potential of the region, which, as evidenced by the studies cited at the beginning of the article, is very significant. In order to use the available opportunities for the benefit of our peoples, it is important to remember: the phrase that strength is in unity is now more relevant than ever.
Utkir Rahmat.
Editor-in-chief of the newspapers “Narodnoe Slovo” and “Halk syzi”