On July 25-26, an international conference "Afghanistan: Security and Economic development" will be held in Uzbekistan on the initiative of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
The strategic importance and relevance of the upcoming forum is that for the first time Tashkent gathers special representatives on Afghanistan from more than 20 states of Central and South Asia, Europe, America, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific region directly involved in the Afghan settlement, heads and specialists of a dozen international and regional organizations, including including the United Nations, the European Union, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Economic Cooperation Organization, The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as the delegation of the Interim Government of Afghanistan.
Domestic experts, heads and specialists of leading analytical centers of Afghanistan's neighboring countries, including from all Central Asian countries, Russia, the USA, Iran, Pakistan, India and Belgium, are also invited as participants.
The new format should facilitate constructive discussion and the development of coordinated approaches to building a pragmatic dialogue with the new Afghan authorities. At the same time, the focus of such a dialogue will be on the issues of the Interim Government of Afghanistan meeting the key requirements of the international community, in particular, to prevent the Afghan land from becoming a source of permanent threats to the security interests of neighboring countries and other states of the world, as well as on the formation of a government based on broad representation, ensuring human rights and freedoms, especially women and all ethno-confessional groups, as a fundamental condition for completing the process of national reconciliation in Afghanistan.
In addition, the issues of socio-economic reconstruction of Afghanistan, the implementation of infrastructure and humanitarian projects designed to bring long-awaited peace to the current and future generations of the Afghan people will be considered.
In general, the upcoming conference is an integral part of Uzbekistan's systemic efforts to ensure security and stability in Central Asia and transform Afghanistan into a peaceful, prosperous country free from terrorism and wars.
An important outcome of the forum will be the implementation of the provisions of the Special Resolution of the UN General Assembly adopted on July 11 at the initiative of the President of Uzbekistan on strengthening the interconnectedness between Central and South Asia, which emphasizes the key importance of Afghanistan for international peace, security and sustainable development.
The Afghan issue is a constant focus of Uzbekistan's diplomacy
Establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in Afghanistan is an integral part of Uzbekistan's foreign policy strategy. Our country has consistently supported the settlement of the situation in Afghanistan exclusively by peaceful, political and diplomatic means, firmly adheres to the need to respect the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Afghanistan, support the formation of a neighboring country as a peaceful, indivisible, independent, economically developing State.
With the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as head of State in 2016, Uzbekistan significantly intensified its efforts to resolve the Afghan issue. A landmark event was the Tashkent International High-level Conference on Afghanistan "Peace Process, Security cooperation and Regional Cooperation" held in 2018 on the initiative of the President of Uzbekistan. The Tashkent Declaration adopted at the end of the conference for the first time consolidated a general consensus on the need for a political settlement of the situation in Afghanistan, which gave a tangible impetus to the resumption of the peace process and the cessation of the armed conflict.
An important contribution to international efforts to promote peace in Afghanistan was the high-level international conference "Central and South Asia: Regional Interconnectedness" organized in Uzbekistan on July 15-16, 2021. Challenges and opportunities", which once again emphasized the paramount role of peace and stability in Afghanistan for the development of interregional ties.
In particular, addressing the forum participants, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev pointed to the historical, cultural and civilizational community of Central and South Asia, called for joint efforts to turn this vast region and the entire Eurasian continent into a stable, economically developed and prosperous space.
At the same time, the head of our state noted that Afghanistan is one of the key links in the practical interconnectedness of Central and South Asia. He expressed confidence that the interregional partnership will become an important factor in establishing peace and stability, reviving the economy in the neighboring country.
Afghanistan in the context of socio-economic and humanitarian crisis
Today, Afghanistan is experiencing an unprecedented humanitarian and socio-economic crisis. According to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, in 2022 the number of Afghans in need of humanitarian assistance reached 24.4 million people, an increase of 6 million compared to 2021, which is 59% of the country's population.
It is predicted that if urgent measures are not taken, Afghanistan will slip below the general poverty line by the end of 2022, where 97% of the population will be in poverty.
The situation is aggravated by natural and climatic disasters that cause significant damage to the country. Thus, as a result of the earthquake on June 22 of this year in the south-east of Afghanistan in the provinces of Paktika and Khost, more than 1,000 people were killed, about 3,000 residents were seriously injured, 4,500 houses were destroyed.
Recently, severe floods covered the provinces of Ghazni, Zabul, Paktia, Kabul, Parwan, Nangarhar, Kunar and Nuristan, destroying more than 600 houses and resulting in the death of more than 1.5 thousand cattle. Irreparable damage was caused to thousands of hectares of agricultural land.
Naturally, in these conditions, Uzbekistan, as the nearest neighbor, cannot turn a blind eye to this. Afghanistan, which is already struggling to overcome a deep socio-economic crisis, is not able to cope with the growing problems alone. Moreover, 75% of the state budget ($11 billion) and 43% of the economy were covered by international donations until recently, and the state reserves of Afghanistan in the amount of $ 9.2 billion still remain frozen.
Taking into account all these factors, we are convinced that today Afghanistan urgently needs urgent assistance from the world community. This assistance is also of vital importance because such a conglomerate of problems creates a breeding ground for uncontrolled migration, the growth of organized crime, drug and arms trafficking, creates conditions for strengthening the activities of extremist and terrorist organizations, primarily by replenishing their ranks with young Afghans deprived of prospects for a better life.
Under these conditions, the isolation of Afghanistan, the displacement of this country to the sidelines of international life will lead to an even greater aggravation of the above-mentioned problems, as well as the transformation of Afghanistan into a hotbed of constant instability not only for Central Asia, but also for the rest of the world.
All this dictates the urgent need to bring the restoration of the national economy of Afghanistan to the forefront. This will ultimately multiply the chances of this country becoming a peaceful, stable and prosperous space, and create creative alternatives to endless war.
Uzbekistan's strategy for post-conflict reconstruction of Afghanistan
Uzbekistan has always had an unambiguous vision of Afghanistan's post-conflict revival strategy, which provides for several fundamental goals.
First. Achieving national consensus in the country. Being an important factor of inter-Afghan reconciliation, this means the formation of a broadly representative Government that will create conditions for ensuring fundamental human rights, especially for women and national minorities. 49% of the population of Afghanistan are women, it is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country, along with Pashtuns, who make up almost half of the population, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, Turkmens and more than 20 other nationalities live in the state.
The call for the need to create a multinational representative government in this country was voiced back in 1999, when Uzbekistan initiated a meeting of the 6+2 high-level group on Afghanistan under the auspices of the UN. At a meeting held with the participation of the main warring parties – the Northern Alliance and the Taliban movement, the Tashkent Declaration was adopted for the first time, which called on Afghans to develop the basic principles of the future state structure of Afghanistan themselves and form a government with the participation of all the ethno-political forces of the country. However, this call has not been heeded, and Afghanistan is still in a state of permanent instability.
Second. The restoration of the peaceful economy of Afghanistan as the basis for a long-term and lasting peace. Today, the country is experiencing a deep crisis due to the cessation of international support, outflow and shortage of qualified personnel.
Experts believe that against the background of events in Eastern Europe, Afghanistan in 2022 will receive only $ 329 million from donor countries, or 13.5% of the total required amount. As a result, due to the reduction of foreign financial assistance, as well as the denial of access to frozen state reserves in 2022, the Taliban government will not have enough $ 8 billion to fulfill its social obligations to the population. At the same time, UNDP forecasts a 20% reduction in GDP by the end of 2022 compared to 2020 - from 20 to 16 billion dollars.
According to a World Bank report released in April 2022, the current isolation of the Afghan economy could lead to increased poverty, internal displacement of the population, increased instability and the expansion of the influence of terrorist structures.
That is why Uzbekistan considers the provision of all possible assistance in the reconstruction of the Afghan economy, the creation of the necessary fundamental basis for activating the process of peaceful resolution of the domestic crisis to be a recipe for solving the socio-economic problems of Afghanistan.
Our country has been making its contribution to the support of the national economy of Afghanistan for a long time. Uzbekistan continues to cover about 52% of the country's electricity imports (2.7 billion kWh). Despite the difficult situation, the operation of the transport hub in Termez is ensured, through which about 50% of Afghan imports go. These are, first of all, food, medicines and petroleum products, which are so necessary for the life support of the Afghan state.
In addition, Uzbekistan provides humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people. In particular, from September 2021 to the present, 4 echelons of humanitarian cargo with a total volume of more than 8,400 tons have been sent to Afghanistan. Moreover, our country also carries out an important mediation mission, facilitating the delivery of humanitarian aid sent by the international community to this country.
So, in 2021, at the initiative of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, an international logistics hub in Termez for receiving and delivering aid to Afghanistan began operating under the auspices of the UN. This is the only terminal located near the border with Afghanistan. Its area is 40.7 hectares. The production capacity of the container site allows processing 69 units of 20-foot containers per day. In the first half of this year alone, the World Food Program, UNICEF and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which opened their offices in Termez, sent more than 35 thousand tons of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.
Uzbekistan also contributes to the training of national personnel, which is so necessary for the reconstruction of the economy of Afghanistan. In particular, in 2018, an Educational Center for Afghan citizens was launched in the city of Termez and continues to operate today. This is the only institution in the world that trains Afghans in 17 areas of higher and 16 areas of secondary specialized, vocational education. Currently, 129 Afghans are being trained at the center, they, along with their fellow citizens who have already graduated, will undoubtedly contribute to the reconstruction of their country.
The third. Broad involvement of Afghanistan in regional processes. In this regard, it is important to actively promote the country's participation in political, economic, cultural and humanitarian integration.
Afghanistan's involvement in regional trade and economic ties, as well as the implementation of major infrastructure and socially significant projects in this country, primarily in the areas of trade, transport, energy, agriculture and healthcare, should remain a priority. Thanks to these efforts, alternative sources of income for the population will be created, the necessary incentives for the transition to a creative and peaceful life for the citizens of Afghanistan.
In this regard, Uzbekistan supports the implementation of major infrastructure projects in Afghanistan. In particular, the construction of the Surkhan–Puli-Khumri transmission line will allow supplying 6 billion kWh of electricity to Afghanistan per year, which will cover a third of the country's electricity needs. Thanks to the implementation of this project, 500 thousand families, social infrastructure and economic sectors in Afghanistan will have access to electricity.
In turn, the implementation of the Termez–Mazar-I–Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway construction project, which will become a logical continuation of the Hairaton-Mazar-I-Sharif railway, will allow the formation of new and shortest transit corridors with access to the Pakistani and Indian railways, as well as to the ports of the Arabian Sea (Gwadar, Karachi/Kasim, Mumbai and others, will connect 8 settlements of Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. By creating a unified railway infrastructure of the CIS countries with the countries of South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh), it allows for faster transportation of goods through the ports of Pakistan without additional costs, connecting the largest markets of Southeast Asia with the markets of the CIS countries, China and Europe. The highway will reduce the delivery time of goods from Southeast Asia to Europe from 55 days (via the Suez Canal) and 35 days (North-South corridors) to 25 days.
The significance and effectiveness of this project can significantly increase if it is implemented synchronously with the Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan–China railway construction project, which connects China with Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries in the shortest way (433 kilometers). This will significantly increase the volume of transportation due to cargo from China to the countries of Central and South Asia and back.
The construction of this railway will also provide additional opportunities for our neighbors – Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, as well as the countries of the Caucasus, which are connected by a single railway network. In general, the implementation of the trans-Afghan railway project will reduce the time and cost of cargo transportation by 30-40%. In the future, the volume of traffic may grow to at least 15-20 million tons per year.
In addition, the implementation of this interregional railway project, which provides for the construction of 785 kilometers of power supply lines, 790 kilometers of communication lines, more than 1,000 new artificial structures (bridges, tunnels, stations), will contribute to the development of transport and related infrastructure in Afghanistan along the railway. As a result, it is expected that more than half a million new jobs will be created and new professions will be formed, including those related to the operation of railway transport, up to 15 million residents of the region will become beneficiaries of the project.
Moreover, it will allow dozens of mineral deposits located in the central part of Afghanistan to be involved in economic turnover. According to various sources, there are mineral deposits in Afghanistan worth at least $ 1 trillion: more than 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.3 billion tons of marble, 57.7 million metric tons of copper and 1.4 million tons of rare earth minerals.
The implementation of these major projects can trigger the economic development of Afghanistan, create alternative sources of income for the population and, as a result, eliminate the social background of the conflict. Most importantly, the transformation of Afghanistan into a space that unites the countries of the region through infrastructure and economic interconnectedness projects will increase the interest of the states surrounding Afghanistan in maintaining peace and stability in this country, will return Afghanistan to its lost historical role as a connecting link between Central and South Asia.
Uzbekistan proceeds from the fact that achieving such goals is impossible without maintaining a constructive dialogue with the new Afghan authorities. At the same time, its main goal should be to create conditions capable of transforming the new Government into a responsible political force striving to live in peace and harmony with its neighbors and the international community.
Joining the efforts of the Central Asian countries to resolve the Afghan issue
The Central Asian States pursue a coordinated, complementary policy towards Afghanistan, considering it as an integral part of the region, maintain a constant dialogue on the settlement of the Afghan crisis and the establishment of long-term stability in this country.
The Afghan issue is always in the focus of the Consultative Meeting of the Heads of Central Asian States, which in recent years has transformed into an effective mechanism for multilateral cooperation. In particular, following the results of the IV summit of Central Asian countries on July 21 this year in Kyrgyzstan, the parties reiterated their intention to closely coordinate efforts to ensure security and stability in Afghanistan, improve the humanitarian situation, restore socio-economic infrastructure and fully involve this country in regional economic ties to achieve civil peace and harmony in Afghan society.
As President Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted, "the continuation of close cooperation in promoting long-term peace in Afghanistan and its socio-economic recovery should remain the most important priority of the Central Asian states. We are the closest neighbors, and no one else should be interested in stability in this country. It is largely up to us how the international community perceives this problem."
A consolidated Central Asia can play a decisive role in establishing lasting peace in Afghanistan and returning this country to the path of peaceful development. Today, the countries of Central Asia stand on the positions of democratic legal states, develop on the basis of the principles of secular republics, advocate the strengthening of human rights and freedoms.
In this regard, a single and integral region of Central Asia, which advocates the involvement of Afghanistan in regional trade and economic ties, on the one hand, can positively influence Afghanistan, become an example for it, thanks to which this country will gradually change and strive to integrate into the international community as a responsible subject of international relations. On the other hand, the cohesion of the region will significantly increase its resistance to challenges, may become a "barrier" to external threats.
That is why it is important to continue strengthening the interconnectedness of Central Asia, its integrity and unity, in particular by supporting regional projects aimed at cooperation in the field of transport, industrial cooperation, digitalization and other areas of regional convergence.
In general, Uzbekistan views the upcoming international conference in Tashkent as another important step bringing the international community closer to finding common solutions to the problems in Afghanistan. This forum will be a logical continuation of Uzbekistan's consistent efforts to establish lasting peace in Afghanistan, is more relevant than ever, taking into account the intricately intertwined, multifaceted problems that this country is facing today, and will allow us to indicate the degree of readiness of all interested parties for close cooperation in the post-conflict reconstruction of Afghanistan.
We hope that its results will allow us to bring the Afghan issue back on the world agenda and find the keys to normalizing the situation in Afghanistan, and return it to the bosom of the family of the international community.
Akramjon Nematov,
First Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and
Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan